Climate
Human activity is causing substantial changes in climate that are expected to increase in magnitude over the coming century. These changes are known to threaten many of the essential processes on which humanity depends, including food production. However, the ways in which societal responses might exacerbate or ameliorate these threats are relatively poorly understood because the methods used to understand climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation do not take proper account of human responses. This research addresses this gap by focusing on the two-way interactions between human land use and climate change.
Scientific significance
The dynamics of human systems – particularly the land system – are poorly understood at present, and poorly represented in models and future climate change scenarios. The feedbacks between climate and land use / societal dynamics are, therefore, only crudely recognized and hence, require far more exploration. The modelling of future land use – climate interactions will be a substantial improvement in projecting future climate and societal changes, as well as in methods that move beyond simple economic optimisation. This framework will include new machine learning and remote sensing methods that are required to build interfaces across the land and climate systems.
Societal relevance
Understanding the impacts of climate change on human societies (and the ecosystem services they depend upon), and identifying how those societies can best limit and cope with climate change, is of fundamental societal relevance. This relates directly to a number of policy agendas from regional to global levels, particularly through the work of the IPCC. The provision of information and tools to support policy development will make this work of considerable applied, as well as academic, importance. In the future, we will focus on marginalised regions to address climate-change-induced issues such as under-development, migration, and natural disasters.
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Climate Publications
Advanced photovoltaic technology can reduce land requirements and climate impact on energy generation
2024. Communications Earth & Environment, 5, Article no: 586. doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01754-4
Toward quantification of the feasible potential of land-based carbon dioxide removal
2023. One Earth, 6 (12), 1638–1651. doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2023.11.011
Modelling the global photovoltaic potential on land and its sensitivity to climate change
2023. Environmental Research Letters, 18 (10), Art.-Nr.: 104017. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acf86f
Land-use change emissions based on high-resolution activity data substantially lower than previously estimated
2022. Environmental Research Letters, 17 (6), 064050. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac70d8
Local and regional steppe vegetation palatability at grazing hotspot areas in Mongolia
2022. Journal of Ecology and Environment, 46, Art.Nr. 08. doi:10.5141/jee.22.009
Ideas and perspectives: Enhancing research and monitoring of carbon pools and land-to-atmosphere greenhouse gases exchange in developing countries
2022. Biogeosciences, 19 (5), 1435–1450. doi:10.5194/bg-19-1435-2022
On the use of Earth Observation to support estimates of national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks for the Global stocktake process: lessons learned from ESA-CCI RECCAP2
2022. Carbon Balance and Management, 17 (1), Art.Nr. 15. doi:10.1186/s13021-022-00214-w
Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated
2021. Nature Communications, 12 (1), Artikel-Nr.: 2501. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22702-2
Large variability in response to projected climate and land‐use changes among European bumblebee species
2021. Global change biology, 27 (19), 4530–4545. doi:10.1111/gcb.15780
How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change
2021. Earth System Dynamics, 12 (1), 211–231. doi:10.5194/esd-12-211-2021
Developing drought stress index for monitoring Pinus densiflora diebacks in Korea
2020. Journal of ecology and environment / Ecological Society of Korea, 44 (1), Article no: 15. doi:10.1186/s41610-020-00156-9
Does Climate Change Communication Matter for Individual Engagement with Adaptation? Insights from Forest Owners in Sweden
2020. Environmental management, 65 (20), 190–202. doi:10.1007/s00267-019-01247-7
Successes and shortcomings of climate change communication: insights from a longitudinal analysis of Swedish Forest owners
2020. Journal of environmental planning and management, 63 (7), 1177–1195. doi:10.1080/09640568.2019.1646228
Societal breakdown as an emergent property of large-scale behavioural models of land use change
2019. Earth System Dynamics, 10 (4), 809–845. doi:10.5194/esd-10-809-2019
Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation
2019. Environmental research letters, 14 (10), Article: 104009. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab3744
Improving remotely-sensed crop monitoring by NDVI-based crop phenology estimators for corn and soybeans in Iowa and Illinois, USA
2019. Field crops research, 238, 113–128. doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2019.03.015
Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system
2019. Nature climate change, 9, 203–208. doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0400-5
Bridging uncertainty concepts across narratives and simulations in environmental scenarios
2019. Regional environmental change, 19 (3), 655–666. doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1338-2
Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary
2018. The science of the total environment, 622-623, 1611–1620. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.038
Application of the ecosystem service concept for climate protection in Germany
2018. Ecosystem Services, 29, 294–305. doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.12.017
Detecting vegetation phenology in various forest types using long-term MODIS vegetation indices
2018. 2018 IEEE International Geoscience & Remote Sensing Symposium: Proceedings, 5243–5246, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). doi:10.1109/IGARSS.2018.8518142
Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models
2018. Regional environmental change. doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1328-4
Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary
2018. (P. C. Struik, Ed.) PLoS one, 13 (3), Art. Nr.: e0194695. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0194695
The effect of forest owner decision-making, climatic change and societal demands on land-use change and ecosystem service provision in Sweden
2017. Ecosystem Services, 23, 174–208. doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.12.003
The future potential for wine production in Scotland under high-end climate change
2017. Regional environmental change, 1–10. doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1240-3
Behavioral models of climate change adaptation and mitigation in land-based sectors
2017. Wiley interdisciplinary reviews / Climate change, 8 (2), Art.Nr. e448. doi:10.1002/wcc.448
The relative importance of subjective and structural factors for individual adaptation to climate change by forest owners in Sweden
2017. Regional environmental change, 1–10. doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1218-1
To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?
2017. Climatic change, 141 (2), 181–195. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1881-0
Human appropriation of land for food : The role of diet
2016. Global environmental change, 41, 88–98. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.09.005
Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions
2016. Nature climate change, 6 (9), 885–890. doi:10.1038/nclimate3039
Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland
2016. Interface, 13 (116), Art. Nr. 20160140. doi:10.1098/rsif.2016.0140
Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework
2016. Earth System Dynamics, 7 (4), 893–915. doi:10.5194/esd-7-893-2016
Impacts of global climate change on the floras of oceanic islands – Projections, implications and current knowledge
2015. Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics, 17 (2), 160–183. doi:10.1016/j.ppees.2015.01.003
Evaluating potential policies for the UK perennial energy crop market to achieve carbon abatement and deliver a source of low carbon electricity
2015. Biomass and bioenergy. doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2015.04.025