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Climate

Human activity is causing substantial changes in climate that are expected to increase in magnitude over the coming century. These changes are known to threaten many of the essential processes on which humanity depends, including food production. However, the ways in which societal responses might exacerbate or ameliorate these threats are relatively poorly understood because the methods used to understand climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation do not take proper account of human responses. This research addresses this gap by focusing on the two-way interactions between human land use and climate change.

Scientific significance

The dynamics of human systems – particularly the land system – are poorly understood at present, and poorly represented in models and future climate change scenarios. The feedbacks between climate and land use / societal dynamics are, therefore, only crudely recognized and hence, require far more exploration. The modelling of future land use – climate interactions will be a substantial improvement in projecting future climate and societal changes, as well as in methods that move beyond simple economic optimisation. This framework will include new machine learning and remote sensing methods that are required to build interfaces across the land and climate systems.  

Societal relevance

Understanding the impacts of climate change on human societies (and the ecosystem services they depend upon), and identifying how those societies can best limit and cope with climate change, is of fundamental societal relevance. This relates directly to a number of policy agendas from regional to global levels, particularly through the work of the IPCC. The provision of information and tools to support policy development will make this work of considerable applied, as well as academic, importance. In the future, we will focus on marginalised regions to address climate-change-induced issues such as under-development, migration, and natural disasters.

News

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Advanced PV technology offers more energy on less land area

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Forest (symbol picture)

New paper finds decline in Eastern European carbon sink due to land use change

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Contact

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Mark Rounsevell

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Elizabeth Noemí Díaz General

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Ronja Hotz

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Reinhard Prestele

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Katharina Ramm

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Joanna Raymond

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Spencer Roberts

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Ankita Saxena

Ankita Saxena

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Thomas Schmitt

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Maitreyee Sevekari

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Markus Shiweda

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Max Tschol

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Yongchao Zeng

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Jia Zhou

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Climate Publications

2022
Bastos, A.; Ciais, P.; Sitch, S.; Aragão, L. E. O. C.; Chevallier, F.; Fawcett, D.; Rosan, T. M.; Saunois, M.; Günther, D.; Perugini, L.; Robert, C.; Deng, Z.; Pongratz, J.; Ganzenmüller, R.; Fuchs, R.; Winkler, K.; Zaehle, S.; Alvergel, C.
On the use of Earth Observation to support estimates of national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks for the Global stocktake process: lessons learned from ESA-CCI RECCAP2
2022. Carbon Balance and Management, 17 (1), Art.Nr. 15. doi:10.1186/s13021-022-00214-wFull textFull text of the publication as PDF document
2020
Cho, N.; Kim, E.; Lim, J.-H.; Seo, B.; Kang, S.
Developing drought stress index for monitoring Pinus densiflora diebacks in Korea
2020. Journal of ecology and environment / Ecological Society of Korea, 44 (1), Article no: 15. doi:10.1186/s41610-020-00156-9Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
Vulturius, G.; André, K.; Swartling, Å. G.; Brown, C.; Rounsevell, M.
Does Climate Change Communication Matter for Individual Engagement with Adaptation? Insights from Forest Owners in Sweden
2020. Environmental management, 65 (20), 190–202. doi:10.1007/s00267-019-01247-7
Vulturius, G.; André, K.; Gerger Swartling, Å.; Brown, C.; Rounsevell, M.
Successes and shortcomings of climate change communication: insights from a longitudinal analysis of Swedish Forest owners
2020. Journal of environmental planning and management, 63 (7), 1177–1195. doi:10.1080/09640568.2019.1646228
2019
Lee, H.; Brown, C.; Seo, B.; Holman, I.; Audsley, E.; Cojocaru, G.; Rounsevell, M.
Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation
2019. Environmental research letters, 14 (10), Article: 104009. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab3744Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
Brown, C.; Alexander, P.; Arneth, A.; Holman, I.; Rounsevell, M.
Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system
2019. Nature climate change, 9, 203–208. doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0400-5
Pedde, S.; Kok, K.; Onigkeit, J.; Brown, C.; Holman, I.; Harrison, P. A.
Bridging uncertainty concepts across narratives and simulations in environmental scenarios
2019. Regional environmental change, 19 (3), 655–666. doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1338-2Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
2018
Li, S.; Juhász-Horváth, L.; Pintér, L.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Harrison, P. A.
Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary
2018. The science of the total environment, 622-623, 1611–1620. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.038
Lee, B.; Kim, E.; Lim, J.-H.; Seo, B.; Chung, J.-M.
Detecting vegetation phenology in various forest types using long-term MODIS vegetation indices
2018. 2018 IEEE International Geoscience & Remote Sensing Symposium: Proceedings, 5243–5246, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). doi:10.1109/IGARSS.2018.8518142
Henry, R. C.; Engström, K.; Olin, S.; Alexander, P.; Arneth, A.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary
2018. (P. C. Struik, Ed.) PLoS one, 13 (3), Art. Nr.: e0194695. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0194695Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
2017
Blanco, V.; Holzhauer, S.; Brown, C.; Lagergren, F.; Vulturius, G.; Lindeskog, M.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
The effect of forest owner decision-making, climatic change and societal demands on land-use change and ecosystem service provision in Sweden
2017. Ecosystem Services, 23, 174–208. doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.12.003
Brown, C.; Alexander, P.; Holzhauer, S.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Behavioral models of climate change adaptation and mitigation in land-based sectors
2017. Wiley interdisciplinary reviews / Climate change, 8 (2), Art.Nr. e448. doi:10.1002/wcc.448
2016
Alexander, P.; Brown, C.; Arneth, A.; Finnigan, J.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Human appropriation of land for food : The role of diet
2016. Global environmental change, 41, 88–98. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.09.005
Harrison, P. A.; Dunford, R. W.; Holman, I. P.; Rounsevell, M.
Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions
2016. Nature climate change, 6 (9), 885–890. doi:10.1038/nclimate3039
Engström, K.; Olin, S.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Brogaard, S.; Vuuren, D. P. van; Alexander, P.; Murray-Rust, D.; Arneth, A.
Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework
2016. Earth System Dynamics, 7 (4), 893–915. doi:10.5194/esd-7-893-2016Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
2015
Harter, D. E. V.; Irl, S. D. H.; Seo, B.; Steinbauer, M. J.; Gillespie, R.; Triantis, K. A.; Fernández-Palacios, J.-M.; Beierkuhnlein, C.
Impacts of global climate change on the floras of oceanic islands – Projections, implications and current knowledge
2015. Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics, 17 (2), 160–183. doi:10.1016/j.ppees.2015.01.003