Publications

Fuchs, R.; Alexander, P.; Brown, C.; Cossar, F.; Henry, R. C.; Rounsevell, M.
Why the US–China trade war spells disaster for the Amazon.
2019. Nature <London>, 567 (7749), 451–454. doi:10.1038/d41586-019-00896-2 

Seo, B.; Lee, J.; Lee, K.-D.; Hong, S.; Kang, S.
Improving remotely-sensed crop monitoring by NDVI-based crop phenology estimators for corn and soybeans in Iowa and Illinois, USA.
2019. Field crops research, 238, 113–128. doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2019.03.015 

Brown, C.; Alexander, P.; Arneth, A.; Holman, I.; Rounsevell, M.
Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system.
2019. Nature climate change. doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0400-5 

Lautenbach, S.; Mupepele, A.-C.; Dormann, C. F.; Lee, H.; Schmidt, S.; Scholte, S. S. K.; Seppelt, R.; van Teeffelen, A. J. A.; Verhagen, W.; Volk, M.
Blind spots in ecosystem services research and challenges for implementation [in press].
2019. Regional environmental change. doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1457-9 

Lee, H.; Lautenbach, S.; Nieto, A. P. G.; Bondeau, A.; Cramer, W.; Geijzendorffer, I. R.
The impact of conservation farming practices on Mediterranean agro-ecosystem services provisioning - meta-analysis [in press].
2019. Regional environmental change. doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1447-y  

Lee, H.; Seo, B.; Koellner, T.; Lautenbach, S.
Mapping cultural ecosystem services 2.0 – Potential and shortcomings from unlabeled crowd sourced images.
2019. Ecological indicators, 96 Part 1, 505–515. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.08.035 

Seo, B.; Brown, C.; Rounsevell, M.
Evaluation and Calibration of an Agent Based Land use Model Using Remotely Sensed Land Cover and Primary Productivity Data.
2018. IGARSS 2018 - 2018 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, Valencia, E, July 22-27, 2018, 7472–7475, IEEE, Piscataway, NJ. doi:10.1109/IGARSS.2018.8518023 

Synes, N. W.; Brown, C.; Palmer, S. C. F.; Bocedi, G.; Osborne, P. E.; Watts, K.; Franklin, J.; Travis, J. M. J.
Coupled land use and ecological models reveal emergence and feedbacks in socio-ecological systems.
2018. Ecography. doi:10.1111/ecog.04039 

Holzhauer, S.; Brown, C.; Rounsevell, M.
Modelling dynamic effects of multi-scale institutions on land use change.
2018. Regional environmental change. doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1424-5  

Huber, R.; Bakker, M.; Balmann, A.; Berger, T.; Bithell, M.; Brown, C.; Grêt-Regamey, A.; Xiong, H.; Le, Q. B.; Mack, G.; Meyfroidt, P.; Millington, J.; Müller, B.; Polhill, J. G.; Sun, Z.; Seidl, R.; Troost, C.; Finger, R.
Representation of decision-making in European agricultural agent-based models [in press].
2018. Agricultural systems, 167, 143–160. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2018.09.007 

Frei, B.; Renard, D.; Mitchell, M. G. E.; Seufert, V.; Chaplin-Kramer, R.; Rhemtulla, J. M.; Bennett, E. M.
Bright spots in agricultural landscapes: Identifying areas exceeding expectations for multifunctionality and biodiversity.
2018. Journal of applied ecology, 55 (6), 2731–2743. doi:10.1111/1365-2664.13191 

Muneret, L.; Mitchell, M.; Seufert, V.; Aviron, S.; Djoudi, E. A.; Pétillon, J.; Plantegenest, M.; Thiéry, D.; Rusch, A.
Evidence that organic farming promotes pest control.
2018. Nature Sustainability, 1 (7), 361–368. doi:10.1038/s41893-018-0102-4 

Burton, V.; Moseley, D.; Brown, C.; Metzger, M. J.; Bellamy, P.
Reviewing the evidence base for the effects of woodland expansion on biodiversity and ecosystem services in the United Kingdom.
2018. Forest ecology and management, 430, 366–379. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2018.08.003 

Brown, C.; Alexander, P.; Rounsevell, M.
Empirical evidence for the diffusion of knowledge in land use change.
2018. Journal of land use science, 1–44. doi:10.1080/1747423X.2018.1515995  

Schetke, S.; Lee, H.; Graf, W.; Lautenbach, S.
Application of the ecosystem service concept for climate protection in Germany.
2018. Ecosystem Services, 29, 294–305. doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.12.017 

Asefa, M.; Brown, C.; Cao, M.; Zhang, G.; Ci, X.; Sha, L.; Li, J.; Lin, L.; Yang, J.
Contrasting effects of space and environment on functional and phylogenetic dissimilarity in a tropical forest.
2018. Journal of plant ecology, 12 (2), 314–326. doi:10.1093/jpe/rty026 

Nicholls, E.; Botias, C.; Rotheray, E. L.; Whitehorn, P.; David, A.; Fowler, R.; David, T.; Feltham, H.; Swain, J. L.; Wells, P.; Hill, E. M.; Osborne, J. L.; Goulson, D.
Monitoring neonicotinoid exposure for bees in rural and peri-urban areas of the UK during the transition from pre- to post-moratorium.
2018. Environmental science & technology, 52 (16), 9391–9402. doi:10.1021/acs.est.7b06573 

Burton, V.; Metzger, M. J.; Brown, C.; Moseley, D.
Green Gold to Wild Woodlands; understanding stakeholder visions for woodland expansion in Scotland [in press].
2018. Landscape ecology. doi:10.1007/s10980-018-0674-4  

Whitehorn, P. R.; Norville, G.; Gilburn, A.; Goulson, D.
Larval exposure to the neonicotinoid imidacloprid impacts adult size in the farmland butterfly Pieris brassicae.
2018. PeerJ, 2018 (5), e4772. doi:10.7717/peerj.4772  

Holman, I. P.; Brown, C.; Carter, T. R.; Harrison, P. A.; Rounsevell, M.
Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models.
2018. Regional environmental change. doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1328-4  

Pedde, S.; Kok, K.; Onigkeit, J.; Brown, C.; Holman, I.; Harrison, P. A.
Bridging uncertainty concepts across narratives and simulations in environmental scenarios [in press].
2018. Regional environmental change, 1–12. doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1338-2  

Shao, X.; Brown, C.; Worthy, S. J.; Liu, L.; Cao, M.; Li, Q.; Lin, L.; Swenson, N. G.
Intra-specific relatedness, spatial clustering and reduced demographic performance in tropical rainforest trees.
2018. Ecology letters. doi:10.1111/ele.13086 

Kim, K.; Kim, B.; Eum, J.; Seo, B.; Shope, C.; Peiffer, S.
Impacts of Land Use Change and Summer Monsoon on Nutrients and Sediment Exports from an Agricultural Catchment.
2018. Water, 10 (5), 544. doi:10.3390/w10050544 

Henry, R. C.; Engström, K.; Olin, S.; Alexander, P.; Arneth, A.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary.
2018. (P. C. Struik, Ed.)PLoS one, 13 (3), Art. Nr.: e0194695. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0194695  

He, X.; Luo, K.; Brown, C.; Lin, L.
A taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic perspective on the community assembly of passerine birds along an elevational gradient in southwest China.
2018. Ecology and evolution, 8 (5), 2712–2720. doi:10.1002/ece3.3910  

Li, S.; Juhász-Horváth, L.; Pintér, L.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Harrison, P. A.
Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.
2018. The science of the total environment, 622-623, 1611–1620. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.038 

Dunn, M.; Rounsevell, M.; Boberg, F.; Clarke, E.; Christensen, J.; Madsen, M.
The future potential for wine production in Scotland under high-end climate change.
2017. Regional environmental change, 1–10. doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1240-3  

Zhang, C.; Yang, J.; Sha, L.; Ci, X.; Li, J.; Cao, M.; Brown, C.; Swenson, N. G.; Lin, L.
Lack of phylogenetic signals within environmental niches of tropical tree species across life stages.
2017. Scientific reports, 7, 42007. doi:10.1038/srep42007  

Song, X.; James Aaron, H.; Brown, C.; Cao, M.; Yang, J.
Snow damage to the canopy facilitates alien weed invasion in a subtropical montane primary forest in southwestern China.
2017. Forest ecology and management, 391, 275–281. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2017.02.031 

Blanco, V.; Holzhauer, S.; Brown, C.; Lagergren, F.; Vulturius, G.; Lindeskog, M.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
The effect of forest owner decision-making, climatic change and societal demands on land-use change and ecosystem service provision in Sweden.
2017. Ecosystem Services, 23, 174–208. doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.12.003 

Brown, C.; Alexander, P.; Holzhauer, S.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Behavioral models of climate change adaptation and mitigation in land-based sectors.
2017. Wiley interdisciplinary reviews / Climate change, 8 (2), Art.Nr. e448. doi:10.1002/wcc.448 

Whitehorn, P. R.; Wallace, C.; Vallejo-Marín, M.
Neonicotinoid pesticide limits improvement in buzz pollination by bumblebees.
2017. Scientific reports, 7 (1), Article no 15562. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-14660-x  

Li, S.; Juhász-Horváth, L.; Trájer, A.; Pintér, L.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Harrison, P. A.
Lifestyle, habitat and farmers’ risk of exposure to tick bites in an endemic area of tick-borne diseases in Hungary.
2017. Zoonoses and public health, 65 (1), e248-e253. doi:10.1111/zph.12413 

Vulturius, G.; André, K.; Swartling, Å. G.; Brown, C.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Blanco, V.
The relative importance of subjective and structural factors for individual adaptation to climate change by forest owners in Sweden.
2017. Regional environmental change, 1–10. doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1218-1  

Li, S.; Juhász-Horváth, L.; Harrison, P. A.; Pintér, L.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Relating farmer’s perceptions of climate change risk to adaptation behaviour in Hungary.
2017. Journal of environmental management, 185, 21–30. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.10.051 

Dunn, M.; Rounsevell, M. D.; Carlsen, H.; Dzebo, A.; Lourenço, T. C.; Hagg, J.
To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?.
2017. Climatic change, 141 (2), 181–195. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1881-0  

Alexander, P.; Brown, C.; Arneth, A.; Dias, C.; Finnigan, J.; Moran, D.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Could consumption of insects, cultured meat or imitation meat reduce global agricultural land use?.
2017. Global food security, 15, 22–32. doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2017.04.001  

Blanco, V.; Brown, C.; Holzhauer, S.; Vulturius, G.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
The importance of socio-ecological system dynamics in understanding adaptation to global change in the forestry sector.
2017. Journal of environmental management, 196, 36–47. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.02.066 

Alexander, P.; Brown, C.; Arneth, A.; Finnigan, J.; Moran, D.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Losses, inefficiencies and waste in the global food system.
2017. Agricultural systems, 153, 190–200. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.014  

Scriven, J. J.; Whitehorn, P. R.; Goulson, D.; Tinsley, M. C.
Bergmann’s Body Size Rule Operates in Facultatively Endothermic Insects: Evidence from a Complex of Cryptic Bumblebee Species.
2016. PLOS ONE, 11 (10), e0163307. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0163307  

Cook, N.; Green, J.; Shuker, D. M.; Whitehorn, P. R.
Exposure to the neonicotinoid imidacloprid disrupts sex allocation cue use during superparasitism in the parasitoid wasp – Neonicotinoids and superparasitism.
2016. Ecological entomology, 41 (6), 693–697. doi:10.1111/een.12344  

Scriven, J. J.; Whitehorn, P. R.; Goulson, D.; Tinsley, M. C.
Niche partitioning in a sympatric cryptic species complex.
2016. Ecology and evolution, 6 (5), 1328–1339. doi:10.1002/ece3.1965  

Morgan, T.; Whitehorn, P. R.; Lye, G. C.; Vallejo-Marín, M.
Floral Sonication is an Innate Behaviour in Bumblebees that can be Fine-Tuned with Experience in Manipulating Flowers.
2016. Journal of insect behavior, 29 (2), 233–241. doi:10.1007/s10905-016-9553-5  

Martin, E. A.; Seo, B.; Park, C.-R.; Reineking, B.; Steffan-Dewenter, I.
Scale-dependent effects of landscape composition and configuration on natural enemy diversity, crop herbivory, and yields.
2016. Ecological applications, 26 (2), 448–462. doi:10.1890/15-0856 

Seo, B.; Bogner, C.; Koellner, T.; Reineking, B.
Mapping Fractional Land Use and Land Cover in a Monsoon Region: The Effects of Data Processing Options.
2016. IEEE journal of selected topics in applied earth observations and remote sensing, 9 (9), 3941–3956. doi:10.1109/JSTARS.2016.2544802 

Harrison, P. A.; Dunford, R. W.; Holman, I. P.; Rounsevell, M.
Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions.
2016. Nature climate change, 6 (9), 885–890. doi:10.1038/nclimate3039 

Li, S.; Gilbert, L.; Harrison, P. A.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland.
2016. Interface, 13 (116), Art. Nr. 20160140. doi:10.1098/rsif.2016.0140 

Lee, H.; Lautenbach, S.
A quantitative review of relationships between ecosystem services.
2016. Ecological indicators, 66, 340–351. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.02.004  

Lee, H.; Bogner, C.; Lee, S.; Koellner, T.
Crop selection under price and yield fluctuation : Analysis of agro-economic time series from South Korea.
2016. Agricultural systems, 148, 1–11. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2016.06.003  

Brown, C.; Holzhauer, S.; Metzger, M. J.; Paterson, J. S.; Rounsevell, M.
Land managers’ behaviours modulate pathways to visions of future land systems.
2016. Regional environmental change, 1–15. doi:10.1007/s10113-016-0999-y  

Engström, K.; Olin, S.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Brogaard, S.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Alexander, P.; Murray-Rust, D.; Arneth, A.
Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework.
2016. Earth System Dynamics, 7 (4), 893–915. doi:10.5194/esd-7-893-2016  

Prestele, R.; Alexander, P.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Arneth, A.; Calvin, K.; Doelman, J.; Eitelberg, D. A.; Engström, K.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Humpenöder, F.; Jain, A. K.; Krisztin, T.; Kyle, P.; Meiyappan, P.; Popp, A.; Sands, R. D.; Schaldach, R.; Schüngel, J.; Stehfest, E.; Tabeau, A.; Van Meijl, H.; Van Vliet, J.; Verburg, P. H.
Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison.
2016. Global change biology, 22 (12), 3967–3983. doi:10.1111/gcb.13337  

Alexander, P.; Brown, C.; Arneth, A.; Finnigan, J.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Human appropriation of land for food : The role of diet.
2016. Global environmental change, 41, 88–98. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.09.005 

Engström, K.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Murray-Rust, D.; Hardacre, C.; Alexander, P.; Cui, X.; Palmer, P. I.; Arneth, A.
Applying Occam’s razor to global agricultural land use change.
2016. Environmental modelling & software, 75, 212–229. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.015  

Whitehorn, P. R.; Cook, N.; Blackburn, C. V.; Gill, S. M.; Green, J.; Shuker, D. M.
Sex allocation theory reveals a hidden cost of neonicotinoid exposure in a parasitoid wasp.
2015. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London / B, 282 (1807), 20150389. doi:10.1098/rspb.2015.0389  

Van der Sluijs, J. P.; Amaral-Rogers, V.; Belzunces, L. P.; Bijleveld van Lexmond, M. F. I. J.; Bonmatin, J.-M.; Chagnon, M.; Downs, C. A.; Furlan, L.; Gibbons, D. W.; Giorio, C.; Girolami, V.; Goulson, D.; Kreutzweiser, D. P.; Krupke, C.; Liess, M.; Long, E.; McField, M.; Mineau, P.; Mitchell, E. A. D.; Morrissey, C. A.; Noome, D. A.; Pisa, L.; Settele, J.; Simon-Delso, N.; Stark, J. D.; Tapparo, A.; Van Dyck, H.; van Praagh, J.; Whitehorn, P. R.; Wiemers, M.
Conclusions of the Worldwide Integrated Assessment on the risks of neonicotinoids and fipronil to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.
2015. Environmental science and pollution research, 22 (1), 148–154. doi:10.1007/s11356-014-3229-5  

Simon-Delso, N.; Amaral-Rogers, V.; Belzunces, L. P.; Bonmatin, J. M.; Chagnon, M.; Downs, C.; Furlan, L.; Gibbons, D. W.; Giorio, C.; Girolami, V.; Goulson, D.; Kreutzweiser, D. P.; Krupke, C. H.; Liess, M.; Long, E.; McField, M.; Mineau, P.; Mitchell, E. A. D.; Morrissey, C. A.; Noome, D. A.; Pisa, L.; Settele, J.; Stark, J. D.; Tapparo, A.; Van Dyck, H.; Van Praagh, J.; Van der Sluijs, J. P.; Whitehorn, P. R.; Wiemers, M.
Systemic insecticides (neonicotinoids and fipronil): trends, uses, mode of action and metabolites.
2015. Environmental science and pollution research, 22 (1), 5–34. doi:10.1007/s11356-014-3470-y  

Seo, B.
Quantification of land use and land cover in a Monsoon agricultural mosaic from space. PhD dissertation.
2015 

Martin, E. A.; Reineking, B.; Seo, B.; Steffan-Dewenter, I.
Pest control of aphids depends on landscape complexity and natural enemy interactions.
2015. PeerJ, 3, e1095. doi:10.7717/peerj.1095 

Harter, D. E. V.; Irl, S. D. H.; Seo, B.; Steinbauer, M. J.; Gillespie, R.; Triantis, K. A.; Fernández-Palacios, J.-M.; Beierkuhnlein, C.
Impacts of global climate change on the floras of oceanic islands – Projections, implications and current knowledge.
2015. Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics, 17 (2), 160–183. doi:10.1016/j.ppees.2015.01.003 

Alexander, P.; Moran, D.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Evaluating potential policies for the UK perennial energy crop market to achieve carbon abatement and deliver a source of low carbon electricity.
2015. Biomass and bioenergy. doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2015.04.025  

Whitehorn, P. R.; Tinsley, M. C.; Brown, M. J. F.; Darvill, B.; Goulson, D.
Genetic diversity and parasite prevalence in two species of bumblebee.
2014. Journal of insect conservation, 18 (4), 667–673. doi:10.1007/s10841-014-9673-1 

Shope, C. L.; Maharjan, G. R.; Tenhunen, J.; Seo, B.; Kim, K.; Riley, J.; Arnhold, S.; Koellner, T.; Ok, Y. S.; Peiffer, S.; Kim, B.; Park, J.-H.; Huwe, B.
Using the SWAT model to improve process descriptions and define hydrologic partitioning in South Korea.
2014. Hydrology and earth system sciences, 18 (2), 539–557. doi:10.5194/hess-18-539-2014  

Seo, B.; Bogner, C.; Poppenborg, P.; Martin, E.; Hoffmeister, M.; Jun, M.; Koellner, T.; Reineking, B.; Shope, C. L.; Tenhunen, J.
Deriving a per-field land use and land cover map in an agricultural mosaic catchment.
2014. Earth system science data, 6 (2), 339–352. doi:10.5194/essd-6-339-2014  

Karali, E.; Brunner, B.; Doherty, R.; Hersperger, A.; Rounsevell, M.
Identifying the Factors That Influence Farmer Participation in Environmental Management Practices in Switzerland.
2014. Human ecology, 42 (6), 951–963. doi:10.1007/s10745-014-9701-5 

Whitehorn, P. R.; Tinsley, M. C.; Brown, M. J. F.; Goulson, D.
Investigating the impact of deploying commercial Bombus terrestris for crop pollination on pathogen dynamics in wild bumble bees.
2013. Journal of apicultural research & bee world, 52 (3), 149–157. doi:10.3896/IBRA.1.52.3.06 

K’Otuto, G. O.; Otieno, D. O.; Seo, B.; Ogindo, H. O.; Onyango, J. C.
Carbon dioxide exchange and biomass productivity of the herbaceous layer of a managed tropical humid savanna ecosystem in western Kenya.
2013. Journal of plant ecology, 6 (4), 286–297. doi:10.1093/jpe/rts038 

Martin, E. A.; Reineking, B.; Seo, B.; Steffan-Dewenter, I.
Natural enemy interactions constrain pest control in complex agricultural landscapes.
2013. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110 (14), 5534–5539. doi:10.1073/pnas.1215725110 

Whitehorn, P. R.; O’Connor, S.; Wackers, F. L.; Goulson, D.
Neonicotinoid Pesticide Reduces Bumble Bee Colony Growth and Queen Production.
2012. Science, 336 (6079), 351–352. doi:10.1126/science.1215025 

Thanh Nguyen, T.; Hoang, V.-N.; Seo, B.
Cost and environmental efficiency of rice farms in South Korea.
2012. Agricultural economics, 43 (4), 369–378. doi:10.1111/j.1574-0862.2012.00589.x 

Whitehorn, P. R.; Tinsley, M. C.; Brown, M. J. F.; Darvill, B.; Goulson, D.
Genetic diversity, parasite prevalence and immunity in wild bumblebees.
2011. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London / B, 278 (1709), 1195–1202. doi:10.1098/rspb.2010.1550 

Whitehorn, P. R.; Tinsley, M. C.; Brown, M. J. F.; Darvill, B.; Goulson, D.
Impacts of inbreeding on bumblebee colony fitness under field conditions.
2009. BMC evolutionary biology, 9 (1), 152. doi:10.1186/1471-2148-9-152  

Shuker, D. M.; Reece, S. E.; Whitehorn, P. R.; West, S. A.
Sib-mating does not lead to facultative sex ratio adjustment in the parasitoid wasp, Nasonia vitripennis.
2004. Evolutionary ecology research, 6 (3), 473–480