Nature

Anthropogenic global change is causing rapid declines in biodiversity, which threaten the capacity of ecosystems to provide the services fundamental for human existence. This research will take an interdisciplinary approach to explore feedbacks between the way humans use land and the impact on biodiversity and ecosystem services under global change. There will be a particular focus on pollination, which represents an important example of an essential, but threatened, ecosystem service.

Scientific significance

The interactions between global change, biodiversity and ecosystem services are poorly understood, largely because research must take strongly inter-disciplinary approaches to address them. This work will take advantage of inter-disciplinary methods within the institute to establish a generally-relevant framework for projecting these interactions. In the case of pollinators, research will locate the most vulnerable pollinator populations and help to identify appropriate, targeted management options or policy interventions to mitigate the impacts on these populations.

Societal relevance

Given the expected rate and magnitude of future global change, it is essential to design strategies that allow for the continued resilience of human and natural systems, to which ecosystem services are fundamental. Pollinator-dependent crops contribute to 35% of global food production, with an annual market value of $235bn to $577bn worldwide. Additionally, almost 90% of wild flowering plants, themselves critical components of ecosystems, depend on pollinators. Providing further information on trade-offs and synergies between pollinators and other ecosystem services will help decision-makers in their spatial planning for biodiversity conservation.

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Nature Publications

2023
Staccione, A.; Brown, C.; Arneth, A.; Rounsevell, M.; Hrast Essenfelder, A.; Seo, B.; Mysiak, J.
Exploring the effects of protected area networks on the European land system
2023. Journal of Environmental Management, 337, 117741. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117741Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
2022
Urban, M. C.; Travis, J. M. J.; Zurell, D.; Thompson, P. L.; Synes, N. W.; Scarpa, A.; Peres-Neto, P. R.; Malchow, A.-K.; James, P. M. A.; Gravel, D.; De Meester, L.; Brown, C.; Bocedi, G.; Albert, C. H.; Gonzalez, A.; Hendry, A. P.
Coding for Life: Designing a Platform for Projecting and Protecting Global Biodiversity
2022. BioScience, 72 (1), 91–104. doi:10.1093/biosci/biab099
2019
Asefa, M.; Wen, H.-D.; Brown, C.; Cao, M.; Xu, K.; Hu, Y.-H.
Ecological drivers of tree assemblage in tropical, subtropical and subalpine forests
2019. Journal of vegetation science, 31 (1), 107–117. doi:10.1111/jvs.12819
Metzger, M. J.; Dick, J.; Gardner, A.; Bellamy, C.; Blackstock, K.; Brown, C.; Chisholm, R.; Cochrane, P.; Drewitt, J.; Gimona, A.; Hester, A.; Mathieson, S.; Nijnik, M.; McVittie, A.; Petr, M.; Smith, R.; Smith, M.
Knowledge sharing, problem solving and professional development in a Scottish Ecosystem Services Community of Practice
2019. Regional environmental change, 19, 2275–2286. doi:10.1007/s10113-019-01537-0Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
Lautenbach, S.; Mupepele, A.-C.; Dormann, C. F.; Lee, H.; Schmidt, S.; Scholte, S. S. K.; Seppelt, R.; Teeffelen, A. J. A. van; Verhagen, W.; Volk, M.
Blind spots in ecosystem services research and challenges for implementation
2019. Regional environmental change, 19, 2151–2172. doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1457-9
2018
Synes, N. W.; Brown, C.; Palmer, S. C. F.; Bocedi, G.; Osborne, P. E.; Watts, K.; Franklin, J.; Travis, J. M. J.
Coupled land use and ecological models reveal emergence and feedbacks in socio-ecological systems
2018. Ecography. doi:10.1111/ecog.04039
Muneret, L.; Mitchell, M.; Seufert, V.; Aviron, S.; Djoudi, E. A.; Pétillon, J.; Plantegenest, M.; Thiéry, D.; Rusch, A.
Evidence that organic farming promotes pest control
2018. Nature Sustainability, 1 (7), 361–368. doi:10.1038/s41893-018-0102-4
Frei, B.; Renard, D.; Mitchell, M. G. E.; Seufert, V.; Chaplin-Kramer, R.; Rhemtulla, J. M.; Bennett, E. M.
Bright spots in agricultural landscapes: Identifying areas exceeding expectations for multifunctionality and biodiversity
2018. Journal of applied ecology, 55 (6), 2731–2743. doi:10.1111/1365-2664.13191
Asefa, M.; Brown, C.; Cao, M.; Zhang, G.; Ci, X.; Sha, L.; Li, J.; Lin, L.; Yang, J.
Contrasting effects of space and environment on functional and phylogenetic dissimilarity in a tropical forest
2018. Journal of plant ecology, 12 (2), 314–326. doi:10.1093/jpe/rty026
Nicholls, E.; Botias, C.; Rotheray, E. L.; Whitehorn, P.; David, A.; Fowler, R.; David, T.; Feltham, H.; Swain, J. L.; Wells, P.; Hill, E. M.; Osborne, J. L.; Goulson, D.
Monitoring neonicotinoid exposure for bees in rural and peri-urban areas of the UK during the transition from pre- to post-moratorium
2018. Environmental science & technology, 52 (16), 9391–9402. doi:10.1021/acs.est.7b06573
Shao, X.; Brown, C.; Worthy, S. J.; Liu, L.; Cao, M.; Li, Q.; Lin, L.; Swenson, N. G.
Intra-specific relatedness, spatial clustering and reduced demographic performance in tropical rainforest trees
2018. Ecology letters. doi:10.1111/ele.13086
2017
Alexander, P.; Brown, C.; Arneth, A.; Dias, C.; Finnigan, J.; Moran, D.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Could consumption of insects, cultured meat or imitation meat reduce global agricultural land use?
2017. Global food security, 15, 22–32. doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2017.04.001Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
Blanco, V.; Holzhauer, S.; Brown, C.; Lagergren, F.; Vulturius, G.; Lindeskog, M.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
The effect of forest owner decision-making, climatic change and societal demands on land-use change and ecosystem service provision in Sweden
2017. Ecosystem Services, 23, 174–208. doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.12.003
Ellis, C.; Park, K. J.; Whitehorn, P.; David, A.; Goulson, D.
The Neonicotinoid Insecticide Thiacloprid Impacts upon Bumblebee Colony Development under Field Conditions
2017. Environmental science & technology, 51 (3), 1727–1732. doi:10.1021/acs.est.6b04791
Brown, C.; Alexander, P.; Holzhauer, S.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Behavioral models of climate change adaptation and mitigation in land-based sectors
2017. Wiley interdisciplinary reviews / Climate change, 8 (2), Art.Nr. e448. doi:10.1002/wcc.448
Li, S.; Juhász-Horváth, L.; Trájer, A.; Pintér, L.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Harrison, P. A.
Lifestyle, habitat and farmers’ risk of exposure to tick bites in an endemic area of tick-borne diseases in Hungary
2017. Zoonoses and public health, 65 (1), e248-e253. doi:10.1111/zph.12413
Alexander, P.; Brown, C.; Arneth, A.; Finnigan, J.; Moran, D.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Losses, inefficiencies and waste in the global food system
2017. Agricultural systems, 153, 190–200. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.014Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
2016
Alexander, P.; Brown, C.; Arneth, A.; Finnigan, J.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Human appropriation of land for food : The role of diet
2016. Global environmental change, 41, 88–98. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.09.005
Martin, E. A.; Seo, B.; Park, C.-R.; Reineking, B.; Steffan-Dewenter, I.
Scale-dependent effects of landscape composition and configuration on natural enemy diversity, crop herbivory, and yields
2016. Ecological applications, 26 (2), 448–462. doi:10.1890/15-0856
Prestele, R.; Alexander, P.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Arneth, A.; Calvin, K.; Doelman, J.; Eitelberg, D. A.; Engström, K.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Humpenöder, F.; Jain, A. K.; Krisztin, T.; Kyle, P.; Meiyappan, P.; Popp, A.; Sands, R. D.; Schaldach, R.; Schüngel, J.; Stehfest, E.; Tabeau, A.; Van Meijl, H.; Van Vliet, J.; Verburg, P. H.
Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison
2016. Global change biology, 22 (12), 3967–3983. doi:10.1111/gcb.13337Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
2015
Harter, D. E. V.; Irl, S. D. H.; Seo, B.; Steinbauer, M. J.; Gillespie, R.; Triantis, K. A.; Fernández-Palacios, J.-M.; Beierkuhnlein, C.
Impacts of global climate change on the floras of oceanic islands – Projections, implications and current knowledge
2015. Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics, 17 (2), 160–183. doi:10.1016/j.ppees.2015.01.003
2010
Seufert, V.; Linden née Heikamp, B.; Fischer, F.
Revealing secondary seed removers: results from camera trapping
2010. African journal of ecology, 48 (4), 914–922. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2028.2009.01192.x
2009
Whitehorn, P. R.; Tinsley, M. C.; Goulson, D.
Kin recognition and inbreeding reluctance in bumblebees
2009. Apidologie, 40 (6), 627–633. doi:10.1051/apido/2009050