Richard Fuchs

Richard Fuchs is group leader of the Land Use Data Analysis and Modelling Group and deputy division head of the Land Use Change and Climate research division. His main research focus is on land cover/use, its changes and land management. His emphasis is on dynamics and pathways of land changes to understand land management strategies of countries and regions (e.g. the EU). He studies land-climate interactions, largely by assessing large-amounts of data, remote sensing products using spatial land use modelling techniques (past and futures). He is interested how land management affects global climate and vice versa.

During his PhD in Wageningen Richard developed the historic land cover/use reconstruction model HILDA (http://www.wur.eu/hilda) which provides a reconstruction of Europe’s land cover/use and its changes of the last century (1900-2010) at 1km spatial resolution. Here in the Land Use Change and Climate research group, Karina Winkler is working, together with Richard, on the global follow-up version of this model, the HILDA+. Their recent project is to integrate land management into HILDA+ to assess the interplay of land expansion vs. intensification.

Using such data, Richard assesses how global crop production strategies can be optimized to maximize food production and limit environmental degradation. For example, he studies the efficiency in fertilizer use of top crop producers in the world and ways forward to improve their efficiency. He is particularly interested in the upper limits of agricultural intensification and the margins to reach them, but also in potentials of reducing the negative environmental consequences of such intensive forms of land use.

For this reason, he assess what roles food technologies (vertical farming, gene-editing, plant-based meat) can play it future global food security, because these technologies promise to save land area for production and inputs (e.g. fertilizer or pesticides). He works with Spencer Roberts on developing food technology scenarios using HILDA+ to assess the global upscale potential of these technolgies and their contribution to future food security.

Email: richard.fuchs@kit.edu
Telephone: +49 8821 183 161

Publications Richard Fuchs

2024

Fuchs, R.; Raymond, J.; Winkler, K.; Rounsevell, M.
The EU’s new anti-deforestation law has severe loopholes that could be exploited by the forthcoming EU-MERCOSUR trade agreement
2024. Environmental Research Letters, 19 (9), 091005. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad69ab

Lauerwald, R.; Bastos, A.; McGrath, M. J.; Petrescu, A. M. R.; Ritter, F.; Andrew, R. M.; Berchet, A.; Broquet, G.; Brunner, D.; Chevallier, F.; Cescatti, A.; Filipek, S.; Fortems-Cheiney, A.; Forzieri, G.; Friedlingstein, P.; Fuchs, R.; Gerbig, C.; Houweling, S.; Ke, P.; Lerink, B. J. W.; Li, W.; Li, W.; Li, X.; Luijkx, I.; Monteil, G.; Munassar, S.; Nabuurs, G.-J.; Patra, P. K.; Peylin, P.; Pongratz, J.; Regnier, P.; Saunois, M.; Schelhaas, M.-J.; Scholze, M.; Sitch, S.; Thompson, R. L.; Tian, H.; Tsuruta, A.; Wilson, C.; Wigneron, J.-P.; Yao, Y.; Zaehle, S.; Ciais, P.; Winkler, K.
Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Budgets of Europe: Trends, Interannual and Spatial Variability, and Their Drivers
2024. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 38 (8), e2024GB008141. doi:10.1029/2024GB008141

2023

Fuchs, R.; Raymond, J.; Winkler, K.; Rounsevell, M.
Short-sighted policies are fuelling Brazilian deforestation
2023. Nature, 624 (7992), 522. doi:10.1038/d41586-023-04057-4

McGrath, M. J.; Petrescu, A. M. R.; Peylin, P.; Andrew, R. M.; Matthews, B.; Dentener, F.; Balkovič, J.; Bastrikov, V.; Becker, M.; Broquet, G.; Ciais, P.; Fortems-Cheiney, A.; Ganzenmüller, R.; Grassi, G.; Harris, I.; Jones, M.; Knauer, J.; Kuhnert, M.; Monteil, G.; Munassar, S.; Palmer, P. I.; Peters, G. P.; Qiu, C.; Schelhaas, M.-J.; Tarasova, O.; Vizzarri, M.; Winkler, K.; Balsamo, G.; Berchet, A.; Briggs, P.; Brockmann, P.; Chevallier, F.; Conchedda, G.; Crippa, M.; Dellaert, S. N. C.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Filipek, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Fuchs, R.; Gauss, M.; Gerbig, C.; Guizzardi, D.; Günther, D.; Houghton, R. A.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Lauerwald, R.; Lerink, B.; Luijkx, I. T.; Moulas, G.; Muntean, M.; Nabuurs, G.-J.; Paquirissamy, A.; Perugini, L.; Peters, W.; Pilli, R.; Pongratz, J.; Regnier, P.; Scholze, M.; Serengil, Y.; Smith, P.; Solazzo, E.; Thompson, R. L.; Tubiello, F. N.; Vesala, T.; Walther, S.
The consolidated European synthesis of CO₂ emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2020
2023. Earth System Science Data, 15 (10), 4295–4370. doi:10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023

Winkler, K.; Yang, H.; Ganzenmüller, R.; Fuchs, R.; Ceccherini, G.; Duveiller, G.; Grassi, G.; Pongratz, J.; Bastos, A.; Shvidenko, A.; Araza, A.; Herold, M.; Wigneron, J.-P.; Ciais, P.
Changes in land use and management led to a decline in Eastern Europe’s terrestrial carbon sink
2023. Communications Earth & Environment, 4 (1), Art.Nr.: 237. doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00893-4

Arneth, A.; Leadley, P.; Claudet, J.; Coll, M.; Rondinini, C.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Shin, Y.-J.; Alexander, P.; Fuchs, R.
Making protected areas effective for biodiversity, climate and food
2023. Global Change Biology, 29 (14), 3883–3894. doi:10.1111/gcb.16664

2022

Cué Rio, M.; Bovenkerk, B.; Castella, J.-C.; Fischer, D.; Fuchs, R.; Kanerva, M.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Salliou, N.; Verger, E. O.; Röös, E.
The elephant in the room is really a cow: using consumption corridors to define sustainable meat consumption in the European Union
2022. Sustainability Science. doi:10.1007/s11625-022-01235-7

Bastos, A.; Ciais, P.; Sitch, S.; Aragão, L. E. O. C.; Chevallier, F.; Fawcett, D.; Rosan, T. M.; Saunois, M.; Günther, D.; Perugini, L.; Robert, C.; Deng, Z.; Pongratz, J.; Ganzenmüller, R.; Fuchs, R.; Winkler, K.; Zaehle, S.; Alvergel, C.
On the use of Earth Observation to support estimates of national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks for the Global stocktake process: lessons learned from ESA-CCI RECCAP2
2022. Carbon Balance and Management, 17 (1), Art.Nr. 15. doi:10.1186/s13021-022-00214-w

2021

Winkler, K.; Fuchs, R.; Rounsevell, M.; Herold, M.
Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated
2021. Nature Communications, 12 (1), Artikel-Nr.: 2501. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22702-2

Bayer, A. D.; Fuchs, R.; Mey, R.; Krause, A.; Verburg, P. H.; Anthoni, P.; Arneth, A.
Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services
2021. Earth System Dynamics, 12 (1), 327–351. doi:10.5194/esd-12-327-2021

2020

Fuchs, R.; Brown, C.; Rounsevell, M.
Europe’s Green Deal offshores environmental damage to other nations
2020. Nature <London>, 586 (7831), 671–673. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-02991-1

2019

Fuchs, R.; Alexander, P.; Brown, C.; Cossar, F.; Henry, R. C.; Rounsevell, M.
Why the US–China trade war spells disaster for the Amazon
2019. Nature <London>, 567 (7749), 451–454. doi:10.1038/d41586-019-00896-2

Chen, C.; Park, T.; Wang, X.; Piao, S.; Xu, B.; Chaturvedi, R. K.; Fuchs, R.; Brovkin, V.; Ciais, P.; Fensholt, R.; Tømmervik, H.; Bala, G.; Zhu, Z.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.
China and India lead in greening of the world through land-use management
2019. Nature Sustainability, 2 (2), 122–129. doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0220-7

Kehoe, L.; Reis, T.; Virah-Sawmy, M.; Balmford, A.; Kuemmerle, T.; Knohl, A.; Antonelli, A.; Balmford, A.; Hochkirch, A.; Vira, B.; Massa, B.; Peres, C. A.; Ammer, C.; Goerg, C.; Schneider, C.; Curtis, D.; Pena, E. de la; Tello, E.; Sperfeld, E.; Corbera, E.; Morelli, F.; Valladares, F.; Peterson, G.; Hide, G.; Mace, G.; Kallis, G.; Olsson, G. A.; Brumelis, G.; Alexanderson, H.; Haberl, H.; Nuissl, H.; Kreft, H.; Ghazoul, J.; Piotrowski, J. A.; Macdiarmid, J.; Newig, J.; Fischer, J.; Altringham, J.; Gledhill, J.; Nielsen, J. O.; Mueller, J.; Palmeirim, J.; Barlow, J.; Alonso, J. C.; Presa Asencio, J. J.; Steinberger, J. K.; Jones, J. P. G.; Cabral, J. S.; Dengler, J.; Stibral, K.; Erb, K.; Rothhaupt, K.-O.; Wiegand, K.; Cassar, L. F.; Lens, L.; Rosalino, L. M.; Wassen, M. J.; Stenseke, M.; Fischer-Kowalski, M.; Diaz, M.; Rounsevell, M.; Kleunen, M. van; Junginger, M.; Kaltenpoth, M.; Zobel, M.; Weigend, M.; Partel, M.; Schilthuizen, M.; Bastos Araujo, M.; Haklay, M.; Eisenhauer, N.; Selva, N.; Mertz, O.; Meyfroidt, P.; Borges, P. A. V.; Kovar, P.; Smith, P.; Verburg, P.; Pysek, P.; Seppelt, R.; Valentini, R.; Whittaker, R. J.; Henrique Faria, S.; Ulgiati, S.; Loetters, S.; Bjorck, S.; Larson, S. A.; Tscharntke, T.; Domingos, T.; Krueger, T.; Kuemmerle, T.; Pascual, U.; Olsson, U.; Kati, V.; Winiwarter, V.; Reyes-Garcia, V.; Vajda, V.; Sutherland, W. J.; Waroux, Y. le P. de; Buckley, Y.; Rammig, A.; Kasimir, A.; Crona, B.; Sindicic, M.; Persson, M.; Lapka, M.; Di Gregorio, M.; Hahn, T.; Boonstra, W.; Lipsky, Z.; Zucaro, A.; Roeder, A.; Lopez Baucells, A.; Danet, A.; Franco, A.; Nieto Roman, A.; Lehikoinen, A.; Collalti, A.; Keller, A.; Strugariu, A.; Perrigo, A.; Fernandez-Llamazares, A.; Salaseviciene, A.; Hinsley, A.; Santos, A. M. C.; Novoa, A.; Rodrigues, A.; Mascarenhas, A.; Martins, A. D.; Holzschuh, A.; Meseguer, A. S.; Hadjichambis, A.; Mayer, A.; Hacket-Pain, A.; Ringsmuth, A.; Frutos, A. de; Stein, A.; Heikkinen, A.; Smith, A.; Bjoersne, A.-K.; Bagneres, A.-G.; Machordom, A.; Kristin, A.; Ghoddousi, A.; Staal, A.; Martin, A.; Taylor, A.; Borrell, A.; Marescaux, A.; Torres, A.; Helm, A.; Bauer, B.; Smetschka, B.; Rodriguez-Labajos, B.; Peco, B.; Gambin, B.; Celine, B.; Phalan, B.; Cotta, B.; Rugani, B.; Jarcuska, B.; Leroy, B.; Nikolov, B. P.; Milchev, B. P.; Brown, C.; Ritter, C. D.; Gomes, C. B.; Meyer, C.; Munteanu, C.; Penone, C.; Friis, C.; Teplitsky, C.; Roemer, C.; Orland, C.; Voigt, C. C.; Levers, C.; Zang, C.; Bacon, C. D.; Meyer, C.; Wordley, C.; Grilo, C.; Cattaneo, C.; Battisti, C.; Banks-Leite, C.; Zurell, D.; Challender, D.; Mueller, D.; Matenaar, D.; Silvestro, D.; McKay, D. A.; Buckley, D.; Frantz, D.; Gremillet, D.; Mateos, D. M.; Sanchez-Fernandez, D.; Vieites, D.; Ascoli, D.; Arlt, D.; Louis, D.; Zemp, D. C.; Strubbe, D.; Gil, D.; Llusia, D.; Bennett, D. J.; Chobanov, D. P.; Aguilera, E.; Oliveira, E.; Pynegar, E. L.; Granda, E.; Grieco, E.; Conrad, E.; Revilla, E.; Lindkvist, E.; Caprio, E.; Ermgassen, E. zu; Berenguer, E.; Ochu, E.; Polaina, E.; Nuernberger, F.; Esculier, F.; Castro, F. de; Albanito, F.; Langerwisch, F.; Batsleer, F.; Ascensao, F.; Moyano, F. E.; Sayol, F.; Buzzetti, F. M.; Eiro, F.; Volaire, F.; Gollnow, F.; Menzel, F.; Pilo, F.; Moreira, F.; Briens, F.; Essl, F.; Vlahos, G.; Billen, G.; Vacchiano, G.; Wong, G.; Gruychev, G. V.; Fandos, G.; Petter, G.; Sinare, H.; Mumby, H. S.; Cottyn, H.; Seebens, H.; Bjorklund, H.; Schroeder, H.; Lopez Hernandez, H. D.; Rebelo, H.; Chenet, H.; De la Riva, I.; Torre, I.; Aalders, I.; Grass, I.; Chuine, I.; Goepel, J.; Wieringa, J. J.; Engler, J. O.; Pergl, J.; Schnitzler, J.; Vavra, J.; Medvedovic, J.; Cabello, J.; Martin, J.-L.; Mutke, J.; Lewis, J.; Silva, J. F. da; Marull, J.; Carvalho, J.; Carnicer, J.; Enqvist, J.; Simaika, J. P.; Noguera, J. C.; Blanco Moreno, J. M.; Bruna, J.; Garnier, J.; Fargallo, J. A.; Rocha, J. C.; Carrillo, J. D.; Infante-Amate, J.; Traba Diaz, J.; Schleicher, J.; Simon, J.; Noe, J. L.; Gerlach, J.; Eriksson, K. M.; Prince, K.; Ostapowicz, K.; Stajerova, K.; Farrell, K. N.; Snell, K.; Yates, K.; Fleischer, K.; Darras, K.; Schumacher, K.; Orach, K.; Thonicke, K.; Riede, K.; Heller, K.-G.; Wang-Erlandsson, L.; Kehoe, L.; Pereira, L.; Riggi, L.; Florez, L. V.; Emperaire, L.; Durieux, L.; Tatin, L.; Rozylowicz, L.; Latella, L.; Andresen, L. C.; Cahen-Fourot, L.; Agua, L. B. de; Boto, L.; Lassaletta, L.; Amo, L.; Sekerka, L.; Morales, M. B.; Macia, M. J.; Suarez, M. G.; Cabeza, M.; Londo, M.; Pollet, M.; Schwieder, M.; Peters, M. K.; D’Amico, M.; Casazza, M.; Florencio, M.; Felipe-Lucia, M.; Gebara, M. F.; Johansson, M.; Garcia, M. M.; Piquer-Rodriguez, M.; Tengo, M.; Elias, M.; Leve, M.; Conde, M.; Winter, M.; Koster, M.; Mayer, M.; Salek, M.; Schlerf, M.; Sullivan, M.; Baumann, M.; Pichler, M.; Marselle, M.; Oddie, M.; Razanajatovo, M.; Borregaard, M. K.; Theurl, M. C.; Hernandez, M.; Krofel, M.; Kechev, M. O.; Clark, M.; Rands, M.; Antal, M.; Pucetaite, M.; Islar, M.; Truong, M.-X. A.; Vighi, M.; Johanisova, N.; Prat, N.; Escobar, N.; Deguines, N.; Rust, N.; Zafra-Calvo, N.; Maurel, N.; Wagner, N.; Fitton, N.; Ostermann, O.; Panferov, O.; Ange, O.; Canals, O.; Englund, O.; Smedt, P. De; Petridis, P.; Heikkurinen, P.; Weigelt, P.; Henriksson, P. J. G.; Castro, P. D. de; Matos-Maravi, P.; Duran, P.; Aragon, P.; Cardoso, P.; Leitao, P. J.; Hosner, P. A.; Biedermann, P.; Keil, P.; Petrik, P.; Martin, P.; Bocquillon, P.; Renaud, P.-C.; Addison, P.; Antwis, R.; Carmenta, R.; Barrientos, R.; Smith, R.; Rocha, R.; Fuchs, R.; Felix, R.; Kanka, R.; Aguilee, R.; Padro Caminal, R.; Libbrecht, R.; Lorrilliere, R.; Ent, R. J. van der; Henders, S.; Pueyo, S.; Roturier, S.; Jacobs, S.; Lavorel, S.; Leonhardt, S. D.; Fraixedas, S.; Villen-Perez, S.; Cornell, S.; Redlich, S.; De Smedt, S.; Linden, S. van der; Perez-Ortega, S.; Petrovan, S.; Cesarz, S.; Sjoberg, S.; Caillon, S.; Schindler, S.; Trogisch, S.; Taiti, S.; Oppel, S.; Lutter, S.; Garnett, T.; Guedes, T.; Wanger, T. C.; Kastner, T.; Worthington, T.; Daw, T.; Schmoll, T.; McPhearson, T.; Engl, T.; Rutting, T.; Vaclavik, T.; Jucker, T.; Robillard, T.; Krause, T.; Ljubomirov, T.; Aavik, T.; Richardson, V. A.; Masterson, V. A.; Seufert, V.; Cathy, V. G.; Colino Rabanal, V.; Montade, V.; Thieu, V.; Sober, V.; Morin, X.; Mehrabi, Z.; Gonzalez, A. T.; Sanz-Cobena, A.; Christie, A. P.; Romero-Munoz, A.; Dauriach, A.; Queiroz, A. S.; Golland, A.; Evans, A. L.; Cordero, A. M. A.; Dara, A.; Rilovic, A.; Pedersen, A. F.; Csergo, A. M.; Lewerentz, A.; Monserand, A.; Valdecasas, A. G.; Doherty, A.; Semper-Pascual, A.; Bleyhl, B.; Rutschmann, B.; Bongalov, B.; Hankerson, B.; Heylen, B.; Alonso-Alvarez, C.; Comandulli, C.; Frossard, C. M.; Mckeon, C.; Godde, C.; Palm, C.; Singh, C.; Sieger, C. S.; Ohrling, C.; Paitan, C. P.; Cooper, C.; Edler, D.; Roessler, D. C.; Kessner-Beierlein, D.; Garcia del Amo, D.; Lopez Bosch, D.; Gueldner, D.; Noll, D.; Motivans, E.; Canteri, E.; Garnett, E.; Malecore, E.; Brambach, F.; Ruedenauer, F.; Yin, F.; Hurtado, F.; Mempel, F.; Freitas, F. L. M. de; Pendrill, F.; Leijten, F.; Somma, F.; Schug, F.; De Knijf, G.; Peterson, G.; Pe’er, G.; Booth, H.; Rhee, H.; Staude, I.; Gherghel, I.; Vila Traver, J.; Kerner, J.; Hinton, J.; Hortal, J.; Persson, J.; Uddling, J.; Coenen, J.; Geldmann, J.; Geschke, J.; Juergensen, J.; Lobo, J. M.; Skejo, J.; Heinen, J. H.; Schuenzel, J.; Daniel-Ferreira, J.; Christophe Piquet, J.; Murtough, K. L.; Prevel, L.; Hissa, L. B. V.; Segerstad, L. H. af; Willemse, L.; Benavides, L.; Sovova, L.; Figueiredo, L.; Leidinger, L.; Piemontese, L.; Fonte, L. F. M. da; Moreta, L. S.; Bhan, M.; Toledo-Hernandez, M.; Engert, M.; Davoli, M.; Mas Navarro, M.; Voigt, M.; Zirion, M.; Wandl, M.-T.; Kipson, M.; Johnson, M. D.; Lukic, M.; Goula, M.; Jung, M.; Nunes, M. H.; Alvarez, M. R.; Burg, M. P. van den; Guerrero, M. D. P.; Greenfield, M.; Lobmann, M.; Nygren, M.; Guth, M. K.; Koh, N.; Stanek, N.; Roux, N.; Karagouni, N.; Tiralla, N.; Mairota, P.; Savaget, P.; Doehren, P. von; Benyei, P.; Lena, P.; Rufin, P.; Janke, R.; Santagata, R.; Motta, R.; Battiston, R.; Oyanedel, R.; Bernardo-Madrid, R.; Vasconcelos, S.; Henriques, S.; Bager, S. L.; Qin, S.; Ivkovic, S.; Cooke, S.; Ernst, S.; Schmelzer, S.; Silva, S. da; Faberova, T.; Enseroth, T.; De Marzo, T.; Pienkowski, T.; Engel, T.; Boehnert, T.; Swinfield, T.; Kurdikova, V.; Chvatalova, V.; Lopez-Marquez, V.; Arlidge, W.; Zhang, Z.; 604 signatories
Make EU trade with Brazil sustainable
2019. Science, 364 (6438), 341. doi:10.1126/science.aaw8276

Teuling, A. J.; Badts, E. A. G. de; Jansen, F. A.; Fuchs, R.; Buitink, J.; Hoek van Dijke, A. J.; Sterling, S. M.
Climate change, reforestation/afforestation, and urbanization impacts on evapotranspiration and streamflow in Europe
2019. Hydrology and earth system sciences, 23 (9), 3631–3652. doi:10.5194/hess-23-3631-2019

2018

Pongratz, J.; Dolman, H.; Don, A.; Erb, K.-H.; Fuchs, R.; Herold, M.; Jones, C.; Kuemmerle, T.; Luyssaert, S.; Meyfroidt, P.; Naudts, K.
Models meet data: Challenges and opportunities in implementing land management in Earth system models
2018. Global change biology, 24 (4), 1470–1487. doi:10.1111/gcb.13988

Fuchs, R.; Prestele, R.; Verburg, P. H.
A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios
2018. Earth System Dynamics, 9 (2), 441–458. doi:10.5194/esd-9-441-2018

2017

Fuchs, R.; Prestele, R.; Verburg, P. H.
A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios
2017. Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 1–29. doi:10.5194/esd-2017-121

Erb, K.-H.; Luyssaert, S.; Meyfroidt, P.; Pongratz, J.; Don, A.; Kloster, S.; Kuemmerle, T.; Fetzel, T.; Fuchs, R.; Herold, M.; Haberl, H.; Jones, C. D.; Marín-Spiotta, E.; McCallum, I.; Robertson, E.; Seufert, V.; Fritz, S.; Valade, A.; Wiltshire, A.; Dolman, A. J.
Land management: data availability and process understanding for global change studies
2017. Global change biology, 23 (2), 512–533. doi:10.1111/gcb.13443

Bayer, A. D.; Lindeskog, M.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Anthoni, P. M.; Fuchs, R.; Arneth, A.
Uncertainties in the land-use flux resulting from land-use change reconstructions and gross land transitions
2017. Earth System Dynamics, 8 (1), 91–111. doi:10.5194/esd-8-91-2017

2016

Fuchs, R.; Schulp, C. J. E.; Hengeveld, G. M.; Verburg, P. H.; Clevers, J. G. P. W.; Schelhaas, M.-J.; Herold, M.
Assessing the influence of historic net and gross land changes on the carbon fluxes of Europe
2016. Global change biology, 22 (7), 2526–2539. doi:10.1111/gcb.13191

2015

Fuchs, R.; Verburg, P. H.; Clevers, J. G. P. W.; Herold, M.
The potential of old maps and encyclopaedias for reconstructing historic European land cover/use change
2015. Applied geography, 59, 43–55. doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.02.013

Fuchs, R.; Herold, M.; Verburg, P. H.; Clevers, J. G. P. W.; Eberle, J.
Gross changes in reconstructions of historic land cover/use for Europe between 1900 and 2010
2015. Global change biology, 21 (1), 299–313. doi:10.1111/gcb.12714